Dan Tehan is in danger of losing his seat at the upcoming federal election.
The latest projection from YouGov has a 4.5 per cent swing against the Liberal incumbent in Wanon, seeing independent Alex Dyson taking the electorate.
Tehan has held the seat since 2010, and won at the 2022 election with a 3.8 per cent lead over Dyson.
The projected swing would see Dyson take the seat with 50.6 per cent 2PP.
The projection has Tehan – who is the shadow immigration and citizenship minister – as one of two shadow cabinet members to lose their seat.
It also predicts a swing against all local members in May’s election, but is not predicting any other local MP to lose their seat.
Corio is projected to see a 5.3 per cent swing to Liberal candidate Darren Buller, but would see deputy prime minister Richard Marles comfortably retain his seat with 57.5 per cent on 2PP.
Liberal Darcy Dunston is projected to pick up a 2.7 per cent swing in his favour, increasing the Liberal vote to 45.1 per cent, but seeing Libby Coker comfortably retain her seat with 54.9 per cent of the 2PP vote.
Labor’s sitting Lalor member Joanne Ryan could see more than half of her lead wiped on current projections, with Liberal Mira D’Silva projected to see a swing of 7.1 per cent in her favour.
Ryan would retain the seat on this projection with 55.8 per cent 2PP.
YouGov’s predictions nationwide showing a 1.9 per cent swing to the Coalition, but says we are headed for a hung parliament.
YouGov seat predictions 2025:
Labor: 75 (-2), Coalition: 60 (+2), Independent: 11 (+1), Greens: 2 (-2), Other: 2 (-)
